Orleans Weekly Journal
Published: Friday, September 19, 2008

Dancing on a razor's edge 

With just under four weeks to go until Election Day, it’s time to focus on our federal electoral district of Ottawa-Orléans.

According to the 2006 Census, our riding is home to 109,950 people. And with a 6.5 per cent growth factor since the 2001 Census, suffice to say we are now a community of 110,000 plus and growing weekly. Of this number some 85,000 of us will be eligible to vote.

Over 31 per cent of residents list French as their first language and 53 per cent of us are bilingual. Average family incomes are in excess of $100,000 and we are home to a large number of public servants with post-secondary education and advanced degrees, especially in the hard sciences. Our median age is 38.2 with a 49 per cent to 51 per cent male-to -female population split.

Compared to other local ridings, we have the largest concentrations of former and present DND and RCMP personnel. And ethnic diversity is increasing with new Canadians settling in developments such as Avalon and Chapel Hill south.

As for electoral preferences, this riding (and its earlier incarnations) has mostly voted Liberal since Confederation. While Conservatives have been elected in general elections in the past it has been over 125 years since a sitting Conservative MP has held on to be re-elected. Both Conservative MP Royal Galipeau and Liberal challenger Marc Godbout (former MP) are both well aware of this historical footnote.

But this tide has recently changed and our riding is now a bell weather riding, mirroring provincial and national voting outcomes since 1999 when Brian Coburn captured over 50 per cent of the provincial vote in Mike Harris’ second victory.

Historically speaking, the Liberal floor of support has been 40 per cent while the Tory ceiling has been 41 per cent. This was true throughout the ‘90s with Eugene Bellemare as the federal MP. In the case of my own election outcome in 2004, while polling 23,655 votes, it amounted to 40.33 per cent of the vote while the Liberals received 44.98 per cent of vote. But this changed in 2006 with the Tories earning 41.06 per cent of the vote and the Liberals dropping below their historical floor, albeit slightly, with 39.07 per cent of the vote.

Liberals blame this on a strong NDP candidate and increased Green support. While there is some merit to this vote-splitting excuse, the reality of an invigorated left with the NDP and Greens holding their own nationally is likely here to stay. It also discounts Galipeau’s tireless 05/06 campaign effort.

In 2004, I lost by 2,728 votes to the Liberals. In 2006, Galipeau won by 1,231 votes. With razor-thin margins of victory on both sides over the past two campaigns, this riding is one that both the Conservative and Liberal national campaigns have targeted. Barring any major national shifts or events, local organization and execution will be the deciding factor here once the polls close on October 14.

Next week we’ll look at local issues and election fictions. 

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Comments can be sent to Walter Robinson at orleansouttakes@transcontinental.ca.