Ottawa Business Journal
Published: Monday, July 5, 2004

Election battle ends, fight for caucus/Cabinet begins

Mauril Belanger will likely emerge as the top dog for the Liberals in Ottawa thanks to his discipline and demeanor.

The ballots have been counted, campaign offices closed and newly elected and re-elected MPs in Eastern Ontario will be on their way to Parliament later this month to be sworn into office.  Since I now have a little more time on my hands than originally planned a few months ago, let’s ponder what Ottawa’s seven urban MPs will bring to their respective sides of Parliament and in turn, what this means for our city.

On the Liberal side, the fight is on to see who becomes top caucus or Cabinet dog.  With due respect to Marc Godbout in Ottawa-Orléans and Marlene Catterall in Ottawa West-Nepean, this tussle is between Mauril Belanger in Ottawa-Vanier and newcomer David McGuinty in Ottawa-South.  The smart money is on Mr. Belanger to be Paul Martin’s point man on Ottawa issues; he knows the local players, is adept at maneuvering files through Parliament and has a patient discipline and demeanor to get the job done.

From transit funding to the Congress Centre to any budgetary reallocation exercises, look for Mauril to play top dog when it comes to the Ottawa federal Liberal scene.

On the other side of the House of Commons, newly elected Conservative MPs Pierre Pollievre (who knocked of Defense Minister David Pratt in Nepean Carleton) and Gordon O’Connor in Carleton-Lanark will face a steep learning curve in Parliament.  While I don’t have a good handle on Mr. O’Connor’s aptitude for all things Parliamentary, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt.  As for young Pierre Pollievre, his age should not blind one to his understanding of Parliament or several complex policy files; he will ascend the learning curve quickly.

Look for both of these men to start with second tier or associate critic responsibilities when Parliament reconvenes in September.  As for Ed Broadbent in Ottawa Centre, his experience will lead him to files such as housing, minority rights and transit, however, given the NDP’s marginal status (again) in this Parliament, his potential effectiveness can only be measured over time.

What went wrong?
Shortly after the debates, public opinion polls showed that Conservatives were poised to sweep every riding except for Ottawa-Centre.  So the question for Conservatives in Ottawa is very simple: What went wrong?   Answering this question is key to any future Conservative success in the national capital region.

From my defeated candidate perspective, bilingualism and the future of the public service were two key issues where the Conservative party failed, and failed miserably, in communicating our message to Ottawa voters. 

Even though a belief in linguistic duality is one of the founding principles of the Conservative Party – and was supported by 96% of former Canadian Alliance members and 91% of former PC party members – many (not all, but many) Francophones still were reticent to support Conservative candidates, especially in Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa-Orléans and Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. 

As for the future of public service jobs in this city, the Liberal fear ads which played heavily on local radio stations in the last ten days of the election campaign, definitely had an impact.

The irony of this whole situation is that is was Paul Martin’s Liberals that that gutted government in 1995 and fired conscientious public servants like François Beaudoin (former Business Development Bank of Canada president) and Bernard Dussault (former Chief Actuary of the CPP) for having the temerity to do their jobs and speak out against their political masters.  To add insult to injury, it was Paul Martin who blamed rogue bureaucrats for the Sponsorship scandal.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives were offering up real whistleblower protection for public servants and wanted to merely constrain the growth of federal expenditures to 3% per year as opposed to the 4.5% growth projected by the Liberals. 

The fact that we did not communicate these points clearly and repeatedly to Ottawa public service voters is a failure of the Conservative campaign – both nationally and locally – and a definite lesson to be learned for future electoral forays.

Speaking of the future, it is likely that Paul Martin will govern for 12 to 18 months before pulling the plug and plunging the nation back into another election, probably in the Fall of 2005.  No party has an interest in returning to the polls before next fall, especially here in Ontario. 

After three elections (provincial, municipal, and federal) in the last nine months, political partisans, fundraisers and most importantly, voters, are fatigued.  It is time for a break from politics … which is why God invented summer.