North Bay Nugget
Published: Friday, August 21, 2009

Political calculations likely to trump rational thought

With the summer weather finally here, the last thing most folks in Ottawa (or across Canada for that matter) want to contemplate is the threat of a fall election. But less than a month from now, the House of Commons will resume and if Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff's summer musings are any indication, the political posturing will pick up where the parties left off in June when we almost accidentally stumbled into an election.

To employ rational thought, one should easily conclude that a fall election is not in the cards, with a 30% probability, at best, of occurring. Both the governing Conservatives and opposition Liberals remain tied in almost every national poll. Neither of these two parties is anywhere near nominating a full slate of 308 candidates to contest an election. As an aside, the flagship Liberal website, onprobation.ca, looks like it was last updated when the snow was melting on my front lawn.

The Liberals could, of course, finance a campaign on credit, but another three to six months of their re-tooled and improving fundraising efforts would put some more cold hard cash in their bank account. Moreover, what is the defining national issue on which an election would be held? EI changes? Please. The economy? Ah no, the Liberals supported Budget 2009. Canada's reputation on the international stage? Sorry, the PM's doing OK there.

Then there is the public mood, which is definitively against a fourth trip to the polls in five years, especially if all we will get for $300 million in election costs is yet another fractious and futile minority Parliament with mostly the same cast of characters in the same or revised roles.

But alas, rational thought and common sense have a puzzling propensity to elude our national discourse, especially when our politicians want to parade around the country and campaign for their jobs. So I will put the odds of a fall election at 60-40 in favour of a Nov. 2 or 9 vote, and here's why.

One of the wins for Ignatieff last spring was an extra opposition day on Sept. 28 when the Liberals can pull the non-confidence trigger on the Tories and plunge the country into an election. If they do, it is a certainty that the NDP and Bloc Quebecois will not back the government.

More than 80% of the daily press releases from the Liberals since June allege the government's mismanagement of every file under the sun. This posturing is likely past the point of return. As well, his caucus has grown increasingly hawkish for a campaign: The lust for ministerial limos is strong.

In addition, with our economy slowly on the mend, the window for the Liberals to question the economic management skills of the government (one of the Tories' polling strengths) is starting to close. And Ignatieff has the luxury of plotting his path to 24 Sussex Drive with a two-election strategy.

While a fall 2009 election victory is his goal, even humbling the Conservative minority and improving the Liberal seat tally in Parliament above the Dion debacle will give Ignatieff enough momentum to fight another campaign later in 2010 or 2011.

This fall, political calculations will likely trump rational thought.

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Walter Robinson is a columnist for the Ottawa Sun. He can be contacted at walter@walterrobinson.ca.