Ottawa Sun
Published: Saturday, February 26, 2005

They go to gab

Warning: Today's column looks at two forthcoming federal political conventions -- the Liberals and the Tories -- along with the Provincial PC Party who are in town this weekend for their annual meeting. I know, I know, apart from the hospitality suites they're about as exciting as watching paint dry, but work with me for another 650 words will ya, please?

First up, the provincial Tories who are now led by long-time backroom political strategist and former Rogers Cable president and 2003 Toronto mayoralty runner-up John Tory, are holding their 2005 general meeting at the Westin Hotel today and tomorrow. However, don't expect too much in the way of any earth-shattering news to come from this affair.

They'll elect a new party executive (yawn!), make some internal constitutional changes (yawn!), talk about reducing the party's $8 million debt (yawn!) and in the various events open for media consumption, blame Dalton McGuinty for the health care tax, the health care system's current state of disarray and boast as to how the PCs will march back to power in 2007 (rah, rah, blah, blah, yawn, yawn!).

However, Mr. Tory's more pressing challenge is to win his March by-election in the Orangeville-area seat finally relinquished by former premier Ernie Eves. If he is successful, then yours truly will turn the political radio dial to the Queen's Park station a little more frequently.

Next up the federal Liberals will invade the Westin Hotel and the Ottawa Congress Centre, March 3-6 for their 2005 Biennial Convention. Similar to the provincial and federal Tories (to be discussed in a moment), the Grits will choose a new party executive (double yawn!), hold several policy workshops (big yawn!) and because they are in government (big ouch and sad yawn!), the cabinet will host an accountability session with delegates. Look for much mutual back patting, glowing references (predictable yawn!) to the recent budget and applause all-around (triple yawn!).

Although the sleeper stories that could emerge from this Grit gabfest will be the number of eligible delegates (or lack thereof) that show up in Ottawa and how future leadership hopefuls and disgruntled Chretienites work the convention corridors to quietly plot future strategy.

Finally, my friends in the Conservative Party will hold their first policy meeting in Montreal from March 17 to 19.

A new national council will be elected and look for the schism of the old PC Party and Canadian Alliance to play itself out in this election process (instead of a yawn, this is a one-eye-open thing). As well Mr. Harper's leadership will be up for confirmation and look for him to carry at least 85% delegate support.

Where the potential for fireworks exists is in the various policy debates: Bilingualism, abortion, and equalization all could rear their sometimes-ugly heads. And it is here where things get interesting and potentially damaging for the federal Tories. Due to the location of the convention in Montreal, Quebec delegates will be in abundance and the French language media will cast a very skeptical eye to any divisive discussions on social issues and likely magnify the extremist statements (on both sides of the lingering PC and CA divide). Moreover, given my e-mail traffic over the past 48 hours in response to Thursday's budget column, rank-and-file, hard-core Tories are somewhat miffed with their party's passive stand on the recent federal budget.

To put my bias up front, I fully support Mr. Harper's intellectual, policy-based and parliamentary positioning arguments on the budget as no one wants an election and if one were held today, the Conservatives would not win 99 seats and the Liberals would likely cruise to a huge minority or slim majority. However, the message has been lost on party members who cannot be blamed for pointing out that if the Conservatives are perceived to be no different -- or very similar -- to the Liberals on economic questions, then the point of comparison will shift to social issues.

And take it from someone who knows firsthand (by 2,728 votes) from the 2004 election -- and from the history of the previous three federal campaigns in 1993, 1997 and 2000 -- if the ballot question for Canadians is presented as a social question, the Tories are going to lose, each and every time. Mr. Harper and his colleagues must emerge from their Montreal meeting with a clear and easily communicated alternate vision to the line items contained in this week's Liberal budget. Anything less is a recipe for another federal electoral fizzle in 2006.