Ottawa Sun
Published: Saturday, May 14, 2005

Counting the days and dollars until an election call

Canada's sandbox -- also know as Parliament -- is pretty quiet these days. Oh sure, the kids are chatting on the sidelines to anyone who will listen, but when it comes to making a sand castle (read: governing or debating), alas such a task is impossible for our MPs.

As for next week's amended budget vote, all eyes are on a handful of sick MPs; will they or won't they make it? My prediction: The government will fall in a 151 to 149 vote.

Regardless of your partisan stripe, surely we can agree that the rhetoric being tossed around from the parties is pretty lame. Consider the following examples.

The government is desperate and clinging to power. This one is courtesy of my Tory friends. By definition all minority governments cling to power and the degree of desperation to which they eventually rise is merely a function of time and circumstance.

The business of the government is continuing. In response to this week's procedural Olympic demonstration sport -- how not to compete, Tory and BQ style -- the Liberal House Leader Tony Valeri and the prime minister both stood straight-faced and told reporters that the government continued to function and that Liberal MPs continued to show up for work.

If you define government to mean the public service, yes it continues to function and will continue to function right through an election no matter who wins. As for the House of Commons functioning and MPs showing up for work, please, there are no turnip trucks in my neighbourhood.

The only work the majority of sitting MPs are doing is election readiness, phone calls, e-mails, activity planning, volunteer mobilization and lining up donors.

"We're the only party trying to make this Parliament work." I've heard this one from a few NDP types on call-in shows and interviews. If cutting a $4.6-billion budget deal is making Parliament work, okay, I'll give you this one. But in Jack Layton's strategy -- who, to be fair, has been reasonable and measured in his comments -- there is also much electoral posturing.

By crafting the budget deal with the Liberals, NDP prospects in the BC lower mainland, heartland Saskatchewan and a dozen seats in Toronto are way up and party strategists are musing of a 30-plus seat post-election presence in the House of Commons. And if the Liberals and Tories simply nuke each other for 36 to 45 days on the hustings, don't be surprised if Layton and crew approach the magical 43-seat tally achieved under Ed Broadbent back in the day.

"Canadians are hungry to pass judgment one way or the other." Ah, no. A general malaise and cynicism has set in and all politicians have sadly been painted with the corruption moniker. Folks are worried about their gardens, cottages, summer jobs, family vacations, the NHL's future or paying off the taxman.

However, elections aren't being added to the magnetic TO DO list on the fridge. This election will ensure another minority government and as stated in other columns, an election in 2006 and maybe 2007 and 2008.

If this nightmare scenario comes true, voter turnout will drop to levels of 50% or below. People will become immune to the parliamentary games and then the very moral legitimacy of the federal government will be the subject of constant questioning and speculation. If this comes to pass, I'll start a polling, election-flier and sign-production company.

Moreover, full-time paid partisan volunteers will not just be the stuff of sponsorship inquiries; they could become the legitimate lifeblood of local election efforts. If you think I'm over-reacting, just look at the $1-billion signature gathering industry for statewide petition initiatives that flourishes in California today.