Ottawa Sun
Published: Saturday, April 30, 2005

Welcome to the election campaign

Has an election been called yet?  Doesn't matter -- the party leaders are off and running as hard as they can.

Did I miss the fall of the Liberal minority government? Did Paul Martin sneak away to Rideau Hall without telling anybody? Who told Jack Layton to trim his mustache? And where did Stephen Harper kick off his 2005 election campaign?

All political parties are in full flight -- minus the nicknamed tour planes -- towards the anticipated June 27 election. This past week saw all three leaders (minus separatist Gilles Duceppe) stump through Ontario where, with great respect to my Western friends who got a little uppity last time out, the 2005 election will be decided.

As predicted, voters are in a cranky mood. The Liberal brand is stained, they really don't want an election, they're not high on politicians from any party and depending on the day of the week and your zodiac sign, they are hot and cold on both the Tories and the NDP. A flurry of new polls shows the Liberals rebounding somewhat in Ontario with this volatility taking an equal toll on the rosy Conservative and NDP fortunes of just a few weeks back.

As I predicted to a bunch of journalists a few weeks back, we are now getting word that even if the government does fall, there is no guarantee we will get the traditional 36-day (minimum by law) campaign. Senior Liberal strategists are musing about a 40- or 45-day affair which would push the vote into July. Nothing like some SPF 30, my backyard thong (don't picture it) and a trip to the local high school gym to ruin a nice summer Monday.

It is clear that the Tories will make Liberal corruption the centerpiece of their electoral thrust with the argument that the Grits are well past their national best-before date thrown in for good measure. And look for them to contrast Stephen Harper's decisive style of leadership and fashioning a moderate party platform against The Economist's moniker for the prime minister as Mr. Dithers with no policy focus and a penchant for vote-buying given the money cloud that seems to rain buckets of cash everywhere Mr. Martin travels.

Of course the Liberals will counter with their tired (but so far effective, given their success over four elections) arguments that they are the only national party. And their mantra that only they speak for immigrants, only they can save health care and only they are defenders of minority rights. Of course the only place where these arguments really need to get any degree of traction is in Ontario, and more specifically the 50-seat GTA. And to top it all off, they'll play the hidden so-con agenda card.

Rumour has it that senior Liberal strategists held a prayer session on Parliament Hill yesterday with chants of "Dear electoral God, please send us a messiah in the form of an off-message Conservative candidate within earshot of a boom mic and TV camera, amen."

The Bloc will be out there again to defend Quebec's interests and let's be blunt, do their best to frustrate the eventual national government, whether it is Conservative or Liberal.

As for Jack Layton and his band of merry socialists, they'll concentrate on the Beaches (and surrounding ridings) area in Toronto, the North, and heartland Saskatchewan and British Columbia where they could pick up five to 10 more seats.

Look for Mr. Layton to be less animated and more reserved but deliver the same message about clear air, clean streets and our lovely kids.

Memo to Jack: This campaign is about clean government, without it, every other point and noble societal objective is moot.

Here in the nation's capital Mayor Chiarelli will play his usual partisan role under the guise of sticking up for the city. To be fair, it is the Mayor's job to promote this city's interests continually and an election is no exception, but he is best advised to steer clear of predicting Armageddon should the Liberals fall. Both the Tories and NDP have similar gas-tax deals for cities on offer and the Conservatives have already stated they will honour any "signed" deals between the feds and the city.

Indeed this was as true the last time out in 2004; it's called continuity of government (it's a function of constitutional convention by the way) and if it didn't happen, then we'd all be in big trouble as deals between varying levels of government would simply be ripped up each time governments changed partisan stripes. Sadly, the Mayor was able to hoodwink the local media on this one in 2004 as they didn't bother to do their homework and went along for the-file-my-story-before-noon-and-grab-an-afternoon-pint ride.

Needless to say, the next 60 days will be a wild ride, even better than 2004. And if we get another minority government as the pollsters now predict, step right up and buy your front row seats for Election 2006 ... Monday June 26 to be precise.