Ottawa Sun
Published: Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Too close to call: Byelection will be sneak preview of provincewide battle

The battle lines in Ottawa West-Nepean are being drawn with the recent announcement that former regional chair and mayor Bob Chiarelli wants to finish his political career where he started, as an MPP at Queen’s Park. And the early favourite for the provincial PC nod seems to be 2007 candidate Mike Patton, a former colleague of mine in year one of the O’Brien administration at city hall.

So my bias, re: Mike, is self-evident. But I will also disclose that the more I have reflected on city politics over the past decade, the more I have come to appreciate Chiarelli’s political style: Nothing flashy, but he resolutely gets the job done. Now if only mayoral aspirant Jim Watson would resign his seat, then the premier could call the byelection and the contest in Ottawa West-Nepean could begin.

The other interesting factor for this riding will be the performance of the NDP candidate who could determine the outcome in a very close race between, for argument’s sake, Chiarelli and Patton.

NDP Leader Andrea Horwath has performed well: She connects with young families, is the proverbial and accomplished working mother to boot, is articulate and her small-l labour pedigree is genetic. Her occasional presence in the riding along with a strong local candidate will likely bleed voters, mostly Liberal, which could give the Tories the victory.

The demographics of the riding, including the highest per capita seniors’ vote in Ontario, also conspire against the governing Liberals. Look for both the Tories and NDP to paint Dalton McGuinty’s Liberal government as well past its best before date with eHealth, the OLG, the pending HST hike and massive $25-billion deficit as their proof points.

Into this volatile byelection cauldron will step Chiarelli — as if he will actually be challenged for the local Grit nomination, not — as the proven and steady face for the Liberal team. With both his main challengers likely to be a generation younger, phrases like tired, out-of-touch, and arrogant will be repeatedly thrown around during debates to characterize the Liberal record.

As a veteran politician, Chiarelli will perform well if he keeps his cool and points to this experience of making things happen for the city and the importance of knowing how to get things done in Toronto through the various ministries of the provincial government. The difference for Bob is that Ottawa West – Nepean is not the old Ottawa West that he used to represent.

Two riding redistributions have pushed the riding boundaries farther west, and the geography to be covered in a quick and cold 28-day winter campaign is immense. Organization and marshalling of the partisan faithful will be critical for each candidate.

Turning to the Tory attack strategy, think Liberal equals all taxes, all deficit, all entitlement, all the time. And Patton could get a sizable chunk of support from Parliament Hill staffers eager to support him and the reinvigorated provincial Tory cause under the leadership of Tim Hudak, who like Horwath, communicates well and is also raising a young family.

Ottawa West-Nepean is one of those bellwether ridings, and the 2010 byelection is too close to call at this point. Moreover, it will offer voters a sneak preview of the 2011 provincewide battle to come.

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Note: Beth Graham, a longtime local Tory activist and former municipal candidate is also contesting the Tory nomination; this information could not be verified before my filing deadline.  A follow-up column on this nomination contest is in the works.