Ottawa Sun
Published: Saturday, April 23, 2005

Blue Ottawa?

Thursday night's televised address by Paul Martin was the political equivalent of a Hail Mary pass. With his government on the ropes the Prime Minister took to the airwaves to plead for time for Justice Gomery to complete his work.

In response, the Tories cheekily but effectively pointed out that in 2004 the Liberals were happy to go to an election before Mr. Gomery started his work, now they want Mr. Gomery to complete his work before an election. As the Saturday Night Live church lady used to say, "How conveeenient" and "Well isn't that special."

But unless Paul Martin is willing to back off on corporate tax cuts and dump billions more into the government's half-hearted attempts to meet its Kyoto protocol commitments (which still won't happen), even Jack Layton and his less than 20-seat NDP will likely vote yes to one of several non-confidence measures that the Tories are cleverly orchestrating through the House or for a forthcoming Opposition Day.

The Liberals are at their lowest levels of public support since the knives came out for John Turner after his inability to derail the Free Trade agreement during the 1988 federal election. And quietly around town more than a few Chretien Liberals are grinning at the prospect of, in the words of one,"taking my party back." Meanwhile, the federal Tories are energized and dreaming of power with its chauffeured limos, bigger offices and Commons desks on the right (pardon the pun) hand side of the Speaker's chair.

If I were to crystal ball the seven urban Ottawa ridings today, only Ottawa-Vanier could be considered safe. In Ottawa-Centre, Saint Ed still seems poised to be re-elected. But much is dependent on whom the Tories run and if Richard Mahoney can muster the same type of close-the-gap effort he ran during the last seven days of the 2004 campaign.

Over in Ottawa-West Nepean, the Tories are poised to add another seat in the blue column. Sean Casey came within 1,500 votes last time out. With local provincial heavyweight John Baird seeking the nomination against well-known community activist Ed Mahfouz, among others, this riding association will be flush with members and cash to topple the Liberals.

In Ottawa South, former MP Barry Turner (1984 to 1988) is seeking the nomination which could spell trouble for 2004 candidate of record Allan Riddell. However, toppling David McGuinty may still be tough since he weathered the storm of his brother's (Premier Dalton) health care tax in 2004. Nonetheless, this riding is definitely in play for the Tories.

In Nepean-Carleton Pierre Poilievre has worked hard on issues like whistle-blowing legislation and a better deal for the Queensway-Carleton hospital. On the strength of his constituency work and local profile alone he deserves re-election and is likely breathing easier now that former Defence Minister David Pratt has confirmed he will not run again.

In Carleton-Mississippi Mills, Tory MP Gordon O'Connor clocked in a victory by 10,000 votes in 2004, I expect a larger margin this time out. His military background makes him extremely knowledgeable on defence issues and his post-military consulting work has given him an understanding of major procurement issues to boot. He is articulate, well briefed and very likable ... he could play a major role in a Harper government.

Finally let's turn to my riding, Ottawa-Orleans. While no formal candidates have stepped forward, my sources on the ground indicate that two francophone names are trying to line up support, sell memberships and recruit key players from my 2004 campaign. Look for a contested nomination in Orleans.

The challenge in this election for the Tory candidate will be to woo more French and new Canadian voters than I could but also to provide a level of comfort to the riding's numerous public servants -- many of them DG level and above -- that ensures they vote Tory this time. Finally, this vote swing must be large enough to offset MP Marc Godbout's greater acceptance -- compared to 2004 -- in the local business community due to his Team Ottawa Orleans initiative.

So in seven Ottawa-area ridings, the Liberals are only safe, and only moderately so, in one seat. And if the Tories can make big gains here, anything, and I mean anything is possible across the country.